US GDP preview: What to expect of EUR/USD?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Mar 25, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
    Likes Received:
    The EUR/USD pair has recovered from daily lows, but remains restricted to a 40-pip range of 1.1150-1.1190 levels ahead of the final US Q4 GDP release.

    At the time of writing, the pair was trading around 1.1170, with spot struggling to cut through resistance at 1.1173 (23.6% of 1.0517-1.1376), which is also the hourly 50-MA hurdle.

    US GDP risks being a non-event for the markets

    Final US GDP print usually turns out to be a non-event as by the time the figure is released markets are judging how the next quarter would be depending on the incoming data. Hence, it would take a significant upward/downward revision of the GDP and/or core PCE figure to move the markets.

    A sharp upward revision of the core PCE/GDP could push EUR/USD lower and vice versa. Trading volumes are thin and thus moves witnessed today could turn into a trap next week. Markets expect final print to leave the growth rate unchanged at 1% and core PCE unrevised at 1.3% y/y.

    EUR/USD Technical Levels

    The spot currently trades around 1.1170 with acceptance above immediate hurdle of hourly 50-MA 1.1173 (also 23.6% of 1.0517-1.1376) hinting at a possible rise to 1.1190 (upper end of the range), followed by 1.1205 (hourly 100-MA + hourly 200-MA). On the lower side, breach of 1.1.1144 (previous day’s low) would expose 1.1115 (50% of 1.1714-1.0517) and 1.1088 (50% of 1.0463-1.1714).
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