US interest rate decision: make or break time for NZD/USD

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 16, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - NZD/USD is in a phase of consolidation on the big day with the FOMC meeting's outcome and Fed's interest rate decision.

    The word on the street is that there will be lift-off, but the sentiment is that the Fed are almost in a position that they have to act now or lose their credibility in the market (FOMC meeting: it's now or never) and subsequently the rhetoric from Yellen and from within the statement could be dovish and expose the greenback to downside pressures.

    However, as analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman noted and explained in depth here, there are many investors and observers who do not think the Fed ought to raise interest rates today.

    "They see the fresh sell-off in oil prices and are more concerned disinflation than inflation...others are concerned about the strength of the dollar and the weakness abroad...These doubts have given rise to speculation that the Fed will quickly realize the error of its ways and reverse the ill-conceived rate cut by the end of next year. "

    NZD levels and FOMC influences

    The bird is one of those currencies that can take off in the absence for support for the US dollar and has already accumulated a decent amount of territory in a strong recovery from September's lows at 0.6220 to 0.6897 on 14th Oct.

    Current direction is targeting the 200 DMA at 0.6875 and it might be expected to exceed October's highs in a continuation of that recovery in a weak greenback environment. 0.7020 would be key objective in the near term on sustained upside to meet the June lows in the heavy downtrend.

    On the other hand, should Yellen give off an air of confidence from the Fed that the economy is certainly on track and the inflation target will be met and rate rises will continue throughout 2016, we could see a sharp correction in the bird exposing the 100 DMA at 0.6551 guarded by 0.6750 (R1) and 0.6721 (S3).
    For more information, read our latest forex news.

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