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US: Jobless claims, home sales and durable goods data in focus – Nomura

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 28, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Research team at Nomura, lists down the preview for the upcoming economic releases from the US.

    Key Quotes

    Initial jobless claims: Initial jobless claims have increased for three consecutive weeks. The pickup in claims raises the possibility that labor market conditions may be starting to deteriorate in response to the recent slowdown in economic activity. However, we would caution that claims data tend to be volatile in January and could return to trend in a couple of weeks. In the week ending 23 January, consensus expects 281k claims.

    Durable goods orders: With the industrial sector fighting through various headwinds, durable goods orders excluding transportation declined on a year-over-year basis for the tenth consecutive month in November. The ISM manufacturing new orders subindex remained in contraction territory for the second consecutive year in December. However, excluding transportation, industrial production of durable goods actually increased. Based on the continued drop in oil prices, the strong dollar, and slower global growth, we forecast that demand in the manufacturing sector remained tepid in December. Taking these variables into consideration, we forecast that durable goods orders excluding transportation increased by 0.5% (Consensus: -0.1%). A decline in orders for nondefense aircrafts (on a seasonally-adjusted basis) and motor vehicle assemblies could weigh on overall transportation orders. As a result, we forecast that total durable orders were down by 0.2% in December (Consensus: -0.7%).

    Pending home sales: The market for existing homes gained significant momentum last year. Favorable fundamentals—such as demographics, an improving labor market and income growth, and low mortgage rates—suggest we should see a continued recovery in housing. However, the limited supply of for-sale homes could create some headwinds in the near-to-medium term. The pending home sales index leads existing home sales by a couple of months and should give us an indication of the pace of existing home sales in January. Consensus forecasts that the pending home sales index rose by 0.9% in December.”
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