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US: Listen carefully, she's Yellen – BBH

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 10, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    Research Team at BBH, suggests that the main focus today, outside of whether the capital markets stabilize, is the Federal Reserve Chair's semi-annual testimony to Congress.

    Key Quotes

    “Yellen's prepared remarks will be available at 8:30 AM ET and her testimony will begin at 10:00 AM ET. She is wrestling with the conflicting forces as investors. As the Fed illustrated by not hiking rates last September, it takes financial market conditions serious when deciding on monetary policy. It may be more than officials at some other central banks like the ECB may do, but perhaps it is a function of the fact that capital markets themselves are more important and more developed in the US than in Europe.

    The FOMC statement issued at the end of January indicated that officials were watching how the market turmoil would impact the economy and their risk assessment, which in December was balanced. Yellen, like other Fed officials that have spoken, will likely suggest a position of watchful waiting. This will give the market little reason to increase its assessment of the odds of a March hike, which are placed at near zero presently.

    At the same time, Yellen, a notable labor economist in her own right, will take some comfort in the latest labor market data. Labor market slack continued to be absorbed in January, despite the market turmoil. Even if a small part of the increase in hourly earnings is due to the minimum wage increases, the internals as reflected in the JOLTS report is favorable, suggesting Yellen is not about to abandon her faith in the Phillips Curve. The JOLTS report, released yesterday, showed two conditions that are consistent with greater wage pressure. First, job opening rose 3.8%, which is the strongest pace for the cycle and the strongest since 2000. Second, the "quits" increased and this is often associated with a sense of greater job security and higher pay.”
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