US non-farm payrolls preview – RBS

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 5, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    Research Team at RBS, suggests that the three-month moving average of US non-farm payroll growth surged to +284K in December, its highest since January 2015.

    Key Quotes

    “But while we expect labor market gains to continue at a solid pace, that trend may prove unsustainable into January. Our trading desk economists forecast non-farm payroll growth of 180K in January, slightly below the listed consensus and well below December’s 292K surge.

    The bulk of that decline, is centered in just three sectors – transportation and warehousing, professional business services, and government employment. Less supportive base effects in January may mean that the average hourly earnings growth rate in January dips from 2.5% y/y to 2.2% y/y, even though our economists look for a relatively firm +0.3% m/m advance in earnings. The unemployment rate may dip below 5.0% for the first time since 2007 (RBSe 4.9%).”
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