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US Non-Farm Payrolls to be the key highlight – RBC CM

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 5, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Sue Trinh, Senior Currency Strategist at RBC CM, suggests that the US Non-Farm Payrolls is the key highlight this week.

    Key Quotes

    “As the market debates the pace and magnitude of Fed hikes this year (cons: 200k, RBC: 180k; cons private: 180k, RBC: 180k; unemployment rate: 5.0%, RBC: 4.9%; average hourly earnings: 0.2%m/m). Although RBC is a little below consensus for employment as the hiring bonanza in the retail arena ebbs, it is important to note that even at 180k, this is a clip that is more than double what is necessary to keep the unemployment rate steady, hence our forecast drift lower to 4.9%, which is right at the Fed’s “full employment” point.”

    “The Fed’s Mester (voter, hawk) said that every meeting is “live” for a second hike. Beyond NFP, there are plenty of other US data to digest, including December manufacturing ISM (today, cons: 49.0) and non-manufacturing ISM (Wed, cons: 56.0), ADP (Wed, cons: 198k), and the Dec 15-16 FOMC Meeting Minutes (Wed), which we expect to be hawkish.”
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