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US PCE review - Nomura

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Mar 29, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    Analysts at Nomura offered a review of the PCE inflation data in the US session overnight that sent the greenback into a tail spin.

    Key Quotes:

    "The headline PCE deflator came in line with expectations declining 0.1% m-o-m (-0.106% unrounded) in February (Consensus and Nomura: +0.1% m-o-m). Core inflation came in below expectations at 0.1% m-o-m (Consensus and Nomura: 0.2%) but on an unrounded basis, it increased 0.149%, somewhat closer to expectations than the rounded figure suggests.

    Consequently, the headline y-o-y comparison declined to 1.0% from 1.2% in line with expectations but core inflation was unchanged at 1.7% y-o-y, in line with our expectations but slightly weaker than market expectations (Consensus: 1.8%, Nomura: 1.7%).

    On the details, durable goods prices declined 0.26% m-o-m following an unexpected 0.11% m-o-m increase in January, which indeed turned out to be transitory. On service prices, there was a sharp slowdown in financial service and insurance prices in February of -0.24% m-o-m after three consecutive months of gains. Healthcare prices increased by a modest 0.14% m-o-m, while transportation service prices declined by 0.14% m-o-m, weighing on core prices."
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