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US retail sales preview: What to expect of EUR/USD?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 12, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    The risk assets are witnessing a relief rally heading into the weekend after a tumultuous ride due to the sell-off in the bank stocks. The EUR/USD pair thus dipped below 1.13 handle as the carry unwind came to a halt following an upbeat action in the European stock markets. The focus now is on the US advance retail sales release.

    Upbeat retail sales could aid technical correction

    Economists believe retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 0.1% last month, compared to December figure of -0.1%. Meanwhile, core retail sales—which correspond the closest to the GDP’s consumer spending component—is seen rising 0.3% in January after dropping by 0.3% in December.

    Retail sales figure is the second most important number after non-farm payrolls report since it provides the first indication each month of consumer spending, which drives 70% of the economy.

    Retail sales to rise in 2016

    On Wednesday, the National Retail Federation released forecasts which showed sales will increase 3.1% in 2016, higher than its 10-year average of 2.7%. The upbeat forecasts is based on better hiring and wage increases and low gas prices.

    The oversold risk assets/overbought safe havens & funding currencies like EUR could witness correction/profit taking if the retail sales figure prints in line with the estimates or higher than estimates. Moreover, it would add credence to National Retail Federation’s annual forecasts.

    On the other hand, a dismal figure could weigh over USD; however, the equities may remain, given the rally in oil prices. Consequently, the odds of a rebound in the EUR/USD following a dismal data are low.

    EUR/USD Technical Levels

    The spot currently trades around 1.1270 levels. The immediate support is seen at 1.1265-1.1262 (daily low + hourly 100-MA), under which the pair could target 1.1236 (38.2% of Mar low-Aug high). A break lower would expose hourly 200-MA at 1.1171 levels.
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