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US: Strong data consistent with Fed’s base scenario - Danske

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Apr 1, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    According to analysts from Danske Bank the jobs report showed that growth continues in the sector and the manufacturing data points to a positive turn in the cycle.

    Key Quotes:

    “Today, we have had several important data releases in the US as we got both the jobs report and the ISM manufacturing index for March. Overall, the data show that the labour market continues to do well and that the manufacturing cycle seems to have turned, the sector having struggled since late summer. The fear of a US recession seems to have faded, at least for now, and the likelihood of a June hike has increased as the strong data are consistent with the Fed’s base scenario for the US economy.”

    “However, one has to remember that Fed chair Yellen seems to put more weight on the downside than the upside risks to the economy, and thus wants to see the economy continuing to do well before tightening monetary policy further.”

    “The jobs report for March was pretty strong and show that the labour market performed very well in Q1 16 despite the massive financial turmoil at the beginning of the year. In other words, the US economy is still in fine shape with solid underlying growth.”

    “As suggested by all regional manufacturing indices, the ISM manufacturing survey for March was strong, suggesting that the US manufacturing cycle has turned. ISM manufacturing rose more than expected to 51.8 in March from 49.5 in February. It is the first time since August 2015 that the index is now in the expansionary territory above 50. The details were even better than the headline.”
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