US: The morning after Super Tuesday - ING

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Mar 2, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    Rob Carnell, Chief International Economist at ING, suggests that the morning after Super Tuesday sees Donald Trump emerge as the likely Republican Candidate, and Hilary Clinton pull ahead of Bernie Sanders.

    Key Quotes

    “As far as the Republican nomination goes, no-one who has ever won the most states on Super Tuesday, has ever not gone on to be the party nominee. So if history holds true, then Donald Trump looks likely to be the Republican Party Nominee to fight for the Presidency in November.

    As of writing, Trump had secured the votes for Alabama, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Virginia, Arkansas and Vermont. This gives him 274 delegates, leaving him 963 to secure the nomination. In comparison, Ted Cruz has 149 delegates, and Marco Rubio 82. Cruz took Texas and Oklahoma whilst Rubio won Minnesota.

    In the Democratic race, Super Tuesday was good to Hilary Clinton. She took Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Virginia, Arkansas, Texas and Massachusetts, whilst Bernie Sanders took his home state of Vermont, Oklahoma, Minnesota and Colorado. Clinton’s delegate total now stands at 1,001, leaving her needing another 1,382 to secure the nomination. Sanders has 371 delegates.

    So as things stand, Clinton and Trump look likely to be fighting it out for the White House later this year. Recent polls have suggested that Clinton enjoys a slight lead in this competition, but we have learned to be very wary of polls. Moreover, as we have seen in previous presidential elections, the person with the most votes does not always become President, due to the way the votes are weighted in different states.

    Financial markets are likely to have mixed feelings about this election. Whilst Clinton is very much a known quantity, having served in office as Foreign Secretary, Trump’s policies are less clear, and markets don’t like the unknown, or unpredictable. Whilst clearly, Trump’s larger-than-life public persona may be attracting votes, it is not clear that it settles the nerves of jumpy financial investors. To do this, he may need to work a little harder to set out a coherent manifesto.”
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