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USD and the Fed: A December to Remember? - TDS

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 16, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Ned Rumpeltin, European Head of FX Strategy at TDS, suggests that while many expect a ’dovish hike’ scenario at this week’s crucial FOMC, we think positioning for risks of a hawkish outcome offers better risk/reward.

    Key Quotes

    “With upgrades expected to the economic outlook, any downward revision to the Committee’s “dots” are still likely to leave the Fed well ahead of market pricing on their expected policy path.

    More generally, the ‘Divergence Trade’ is turning a corner and we see the end of this as a primary FX market driver on the horizon. With nearly all other G10 central banks now on hold, the USD needs to do more of its own heavy lifting to extend its uptrend from current levels.
    While the overall USD uptrend is now mature, the Fed should provide it with one last hurrah. Avoid USDJPY as a vehicle to express overall bullishness. We prefer EURUSD shorts. USDCAD may lurch lower if the Fed underwhelms.”
    For more information, read our latest forex news.
     

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