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USD attempts a tepid-recovery in Asia, BOE’s ‘Super Thursday’ eyed

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 4, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet - Today’s Asian session was largely mixed, with the US dollar making minor recovery attempts against its major competitors after the massive slump seen on Wednesday. While the Antipodeans consolidate the upside amid higher oil prices.

    Key headlines in Asia

    Australia's NAB Q4 business survey: Outlook generally positive

    Room for monetary policy is relatively small – PBOC’s Lu

    Fed fund futures: No more hikes this year?

    Dominating themes in Asia – centered on JPY, AUD and NZD

    Broad based US dollar recovery remained the underlying theme in Asia this Thursday, after the greenback was heavily sold-off into mounting US growth concerns as well as fading Fed rate hikes expectations. The services sector activity reports from both ISM and Markit disappointed big time, with markets losing faith in the Fed rate hike stance this year. Hence, the US index, a gauge of the greenback’s relative strength, plummeted to fresh multi-month lows below 97 handle.

    Currently, the USD/JPY pair is attempting a tepid recovery from two-week lows and hover around 118 handle, having faced rejection at 118.25 levels. Among the Antipodes, the Kiwi keeps the corrective mode intact and trades near 0.6670 levels, find good support near 0.6640 region. The NZD/USD pair retreated in Asia after the RBNZ Assistant Governor John McDermott talked down the domestic currency, which also added to the retreat in the NZD/USD pair. McDermott noted that the central bank would be "happier" with a lower NZD. While its OZ neighbour, the AUD, is seen consolidating yesterday’s extensive rally, although remains capped below 0.72 handle.

    Among the Asian equities, the Asian markets outside Japan cheered the rebound in the commodities, especially oil, as the USD dipped. While the Nikkei drops -0.82% on the back of a stronger yen, while ASX 200 index rallies +2.09%%. The Chinese equities also followed suit, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite index advancing +1.06%.

    Heading into Europe and North America

    Heading into Europe, we have central bankers’ speech to kick-off a data-quiet session today. FOMC member Rosengren is due to speak in Cape-town, while the ECB Chief Draghi will speak at the Deutsche Bundesbank's Marjolin Lecture, in Frankfurt.

    The main risk event for today remains the BOE’s ‘Super Thursday’, with the central bank expected to have joint-release of the policy decision, minutes and the quarterly inflation report.

    At its last policy announcement, the BOE sounded increasingly dovish in wake of the recent global market turbulence, with the central bank Governor Carney altering the language to ‘now is not the time to raise rates’ from rate hike could be at the turn of this year’. Markets were caught completely off-guard and knocked-off the GBP/USD pair to multi-year lows of 1.4079. Hence, at its today’s event, the main focus will remain on the voting composition as well as on Carney’s speech.

    Looking towards the North American session, a series of US macro updates are due on the cards, with the weekly jobless claims and factory orders to remain the main highlights.
    For more information, read our latest forex news.

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