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USD bulls dominate in Asia, UK CPI, ZEW – Up next

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 17, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Mumbai) - Absolute US dollar dominance was seen across the FX board in Asia, with the USD/JPY pair testing multi-month highs above 123 barrier while EUR/USD printed seven-month lows near 1.0660. The entire antipodean complex traded in the red, as markets shrugged off rebounding risk-sentiment.

    Key headlines in Asia

    RBA's Kent: China major opportunity for Australia

    RBA minutes: Rates on hold given firmer prospects for economy

    Dominating themes in Asia - centered on JPY, AUD, NZD

    Broad based US dollar strength was the underlying theme in Asia, amid thin trading in absence of major economic data from the region. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) meeting minutes did help the AUD/USD pair to recover briefly above 0.71 handle. However, the upside was short-lived and the Aussie turned negative near 0.7085 levels as the USD bulls tightened their grip.

    RBA minutes offered no new surprises, although turned out quite mixed, with the central bank leaving further scope for easing wide open, but at the same time sounded upbeat on the Australian economic outlook. As for the Kiwi, in line-with estimates NZ inflation expectations figures and the prevailing risk-on moods failed to lift the bird. The NZD/USD pair remains the biggest loser in Asia, dropping -0.51% to trade at 0.6460.

    While the USD/JPY pair enjoyed most gains on the back of rising demand for the greenback as risk-sentiment re-surfaced with fading worries over Paris attacks. The major traded firmer at 123.40, on its way to test three-month highs reached post-NFP. While EUR/USD remains under pressure and trades at seven-month lows near 1.0660, as markets continue to assess the impact of Paris terror attacks on the Euro zone and believe that the ECB will have to expand QE or cut the deposit rate as early as next month in order to spur economic growth.

    The Asian stocks are enjoying the persisting risk-on environment, with Japan’s benchmark, the Nikkei rallying over 1.53% to 19,690 while mainland China’s benchmark, the Shanghai Composite jumps 1.42% to 3,658 while Australia’s S&P ASX index shots higher by 1.77% to 5,092. Hong Kong’s Hang gains 0.30% to 22,456.

    Heading into Europe & the US

    We have an eventful European session ahead, with the UK CPI report and the ZEW surveys expected to take center stage.

    The ZEW will release its Economic Sentiment Index for the next six months for Germany, as well as the Current Situation Index. Economic sentiment is seen heading higher to 6.6 in November from 1.9 measured in October, while the Current Situation Index is also expected to trend down to 54.5 from 55.2 in the previous month.

    The UK CPI in October is seen at 0.2%, compared to a negative 0.1% reported in Sept, while the annual price growth is predicted to remain flat, following a -0.1% drop reported in September.

    Apart from data, ECB board member Lautenschläger is expected to deliver the speech at a conference during the 18th Euro Finance Week 2015 in Frankfurt, Germany.

    Looking towards the North American session, the main highlight is expected to be the US inflation report, with the consumer prices seen rebounding to 0.2% in Oct versus a -0.2% decline booked previously. While the core figures are expected to remain steady at 0.2%. Also, the industrial production data from the US and the NZ dairy price auction results will be closely watched.

    EUR/USD Technicals

    The Research Team at AceTrader noted, “Despite last week's rebound from Tuesday's low at 1.0674 to 1.0831 on Thursday, subsequent retreat and Monday's intra-day gap-down open on broad-based risk aversion strongly suggests the correction has ended and consolidation with downside bias remains for erratic decline from 1.1715 to resume and yield re-test of aforesaid low, break would extend towards 1.0650/60 before prospect of a recovery due to loss of momentum. On the upside, only above 1.0831 would abort daily bearish scenario and risk would shift to the upside for a stronger retracement to 1.0894/98.”
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