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USD/CAD: Loonie rebounds alongside Oil, cracks 1.45

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 19, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Canadian dollar almost recovered yesterday’s slide against its American counterpart in the late-Asian trades, now pushing USD/CAD to fresh session lows below 1.45 handle.

    USD/CAD loses more than 150 pips from 13-yr tops

    Currently, the USD/CAD pair drops -0.50% lower at fresh session lows of 1.4488, moving further away from fresh thirteen-year highs printed at 1.4654 on Monday. The USD/CAD pair dropped sharply in Asia, after the Canadian dollar regained lost ground somewhat on the back of a minor recovery seen in both crude benchmarks. Oil is the North American nation’s top export product and Canada is highly dependent on oil exports for its revenues.

    At the moment, both crude benchmarks are trying hard to regain footing, with the US oil (WTI) up 0.12% at $ 30.42, while the Brent rises 0.90% to 29 levels, both retreating from their lowest levels since 2003. Oil prices witnessed renewed sell-off on Monday after Western sanctions were lifted on Iran, meaning Iranian oil to flood an already oversupplied oil market.

    However, the upside in the loonie is likely to fade soon as markets are pricing-in a BOC rate cut tomorrow in wake of the recent oil price decline, which may further weigh on the CAD and push USD/CAD higher.

    Analysts at Westpac noted, “Markets are not well prepared, pricing in only a 32% chance of a rate cut, much as was the case with the BoC’s two rate cuts in Jan and July 2015. The statement is sure to note that incoming data have been much weaker than expected by the Bank, is likely to demur from issuing any clear guidance and repeat that, “the Bank judges that the risks to the outlook for inflation remain within the zone for which the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate and using any rate cut is likely to be accompanied by relatively neutral language.”

    USD/CAD Technical Levels

    To the upside, the next resistances are seen near 1.4534/54 (1h 10-SMA/ daily high). To the downside, immediate support might be located at 1.4419/00 (1h 100-SMA/ key psychological barrier) and below that 1.4371 (10-DMA).
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