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USD/CAD sits at fresh cycle highs near 1.4380

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 14, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Mumbai) - The bullish momentum in the USD/CAD pair remains unabated, with the continuous decline in the oil prices smashing the Canadian dollar to fresh multi-year lows.

    USD/CAD testing Wednesday’s high


    Currently, the USD/CAD pair rises 0.24% higher at 1.4375, having tested yesterday’s highs at 1.4383 levels. The ongoing weakness in the black gold continues to cast dark clouds over the Canadian economic outlook and hence, keeps the loonie supressed. Oil is the North American nation’s top export product and Canada is highly dependent on oil exports for its revenues.

    At the moment, both crude benchmarks are trading at their lowest levels in twelve years, with the US oil (WTI) muted around $ 30.50, while the Brent drops -0.56% to 30.02, having printed the lowest levels since Feb 2004 at 29.72 earlier on the day.

    Analyst at Morgan Stanley note, “We look for further USD/CAD strength as Oil continues to weaken and Canada’s fundamentals deteriorate. Rates market is still not pricing in enough probability of Bank of Canada easing, a major disconnect given still low energy prices and signs of manufacturing turning over.”

    In the day ahead, the Canadian NHPI is on the cards, besides the US jobless claims will be also report. However, for the CAD, the oil price action remains the key.

    USD/CAD Technical Levels


    To the upside, the next resistances are seen near 1.4400-1.4450 (April 2003 levels). To the downside, immediate support might be located at 1.4278/71 (1h 50-SMA/ 5-DMA) and below that 1.4212/1.4200 (1h 100-SMA/ round number).
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