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USD/CAD: watching commodity prices over BoC - Nomura

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 28, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - In respect of USD/CAD, analysts at Nomura explained that the prices of commodities relevant to the Canadian economy have declined further in recent weeks.

    Key Quotes:

    "The price of oil has declined to below $35 a barrel from about $49 in October, a decline of about 30%. But it is not just oil prices that matter and the prices of other commodities have also declined; natural gas, agricultural products and metals have all declined significantly.

    According to the Bank of Canada Commodity Price Index, commodity prices relevant to the Canadian economy have declined by 16% since September, with a decline of 25% in the energy sub-index and of 8% in the non-energy sub-index.

    These declines will have an impact on the terms of trade, especially on export prices. However, it is important to note that Canada imports about 35% of the oil it consumes, meaning that the impact from the decline in oil prices is not as negative as some might expect.

    Nevertheless, the impact on the economy is very likely to be negative, as some commodity producers cancel and postpone more of their capex projects, leading to further drags on growth in 2016.

    The recent decline in in the terms of trade is most likely the main cause of the recent CAD depreciation. Commodity currencies are driven more by changes in the terms of trade resulting from commodity prices than by changes in interest rates differentials."
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