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USD capitulates into the BoE today and US payrolls tomorrow – Lloyds Bank

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 4, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    Research Team at Lloyds Bank, suggests that it is always difficult to pinpoint an individual trigger that sees the kind of moves experienced in the USD yesterday.

    Key Quotes

    “It was probably more to do with a number of smaller factors, which turned a nagging worry for USD long holders into a capitulation move. The US bond markets have been aggressively re-pricing expectation of the US rates since the end of last year. 2-year yields have fallen 40+ bps, as an example. This puts pressure on USD bulls and with European PMIs this week generally surprising to the topside - none more so than the UK (especially services yesterday) - combined with softer US services PMIs, the USD capitulated.

    The move extended as key technical levels broke, particularly the well watched 1.0985 region in the EURUSD. As we head into the BoE today, GBPUSD has reached important trend resistance in the 1.4650 region, while EURGBP is holding over .7525-.7490 key trend support. A less dovish message from Governor Carney could see sterling break these levels and extend the recent recovery. The broader USD we expect to consolidate into the key data tomorrow, aligned with the US bond market.”
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