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USD: JOLTS provides further evidence of labour market strength – MUFG

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 13, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Derek Halpenny, European Head of GMR at MUFG, suggests that the 292k increase in nonfarm payrolls in December, reported last week was followed yesterday by the JOLTS report which provided further evidence of tightening labour market conditions that are likely soon to translate into upward pressure on wages.

    Key Quotes

    “The JOLTS report revealed an 82k increase in job openings to 5.43mn. The numbers quitting their jobs, those voluntarily leaving their jobs, which indicates the degree of confidence in the labour market, also jumped with the quit rate holding steady at 2.0%, the level prevailing before the recession took hold in 2008.

    The quit rate tends to lead the annual change in wage growth and greater turnover in the labour market will inevitably translate into higher wages. Workers only voluntarily leave their jobs in order to go to another job that pays more.

    So while we remain confident on current domestic economic conditions in the US, we are mindful of the continued slide in commodity prices and coupled with dollar strength what this might do to the US manufacturing sector. In that regard, we will be listening closely to the comments today from Boston Fed President Rosengren, who speaks at 1320 GMT.

    Rosengren is a voter this year and it is the first opportunity for the markets to hear from one of the four incoming 2016 Fed President voters. Rosengren is best described as the one dove becoming a voter this year and he last spoke in November when he emphasised the need for rate hikes to be gradual. St. Louis Fed Bullard will speak tomorrow and would certainly be described as one of the three hawkish 2016 voters.”
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