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USD/JPY: 115 in the firing line?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 18, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - USD/JPY has started out at the start of the week in the Tokyo open with a slight bid, despite the weekend news from the Middle East and within an environment where risks remain to the downside due to global uncertainties.

    Last week, USD/JPY was stabilizing on the 117 handle having dropped at the start of year from above the mid point of the 120 handle on fears relating to China's economy and the stock market rout. The Yes has been underpinned for its safe haven status and longs were squeezed on a determined sell-off that made fresh daily lows since late August 2015 trade of 116.50. Data in the US last week was adding to the offer with retails sales missing expectations and Industrial Production during the same month, shrinking by 0.4%. CPI inflation and housing data for the US is on the agenda for this week. "Core should outperform headline on account of weak core commodity prices and favorable base effects should result in an acceleration of annual CPI inflation," explained analysts at TDS and added, "Existing home sales on the other hand should snap back 13% m/m, realigning with the more buoyant tone in pending sales and reversing last month's disappointment caused by regulatory change."

    Technically, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained, Having closed the week a few pips below the 117.00 level, the daily chart shows that the technical indicators have resumed their declines near oversold territory after a limited upward corrective move, while the price remains well below the 100 and 200 SMAs.

    In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators present strong bearish slopes well below their mid-lines, while the 100 and 200 SMA have accelerated their declines far above the current level, all of which supports some further declines towards 116.10 in the short term. A break below this last should fuel the decline by triggering panic selling, exposing the 115.00 price zone."
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