USD/JPY: 50 pip recovery consolidated into Thanksgiving

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 26, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - USD/JPY is currently trading at 122.69 with a high of 122.94 and a low of 122.25.

    USD/JPY gathered demand into the closing sticks on the hourly chart for the US session ahead and thin holiday trade. The upside is limited on the risk aversion due to the geopolitical tensions surrounding Syria and economic Global uncertainties, but there has been a decent bid from way below the pivot of 122.59 and lows scored at 122.25 overnight.

    The BoJ's minutes were the initial catalyst for the extension of the risk off flows while it was seen that most members say underlying inflation trend is improving and remain optimistic that the 2% target will be achieved in the said time frame.

    Meanwhile, the greenback made a comeback to aforementioned highs and US data was more than palatable and with the Dec FOMC on the mindset. Durable goods was a good result at 3.0% vs just 1.5% expected and -0.8% previous while PCE came in line with expectations except for M/M that missed lower by 0.1%. We now move into thin holiday trade with the US Thanksgiving holidays and without a catalyst scheduled, a period of consolidation would be the order of the Asian session.

    USD/JPY levels

    Technically, Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank explained that USD/JPY is correcting lower near term and that their profit stop has been hit, but last weeks low at 122.23 continues to hold. "Currently the intraday Elliott wave counts are implying a 121.30/120.50 correction lower. This will take us down to approximately the 200 day ma and the 55 day ma and we will be tempted back into longs in this vicinity."

    For a longer term analysis for USD/JPY, see here.
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