USD/JPY: bears to test 2012/15 uptrend at 119.11?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 18, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - USD/JPY is back below the 200 and 100 SMA's on the hourly chart after yesterday's fiasco of a BoJ meeting. In essence, the BoJ has eased monetary conditions by announcing the measures that have been aimed at promoting the transition of policy stimulus."

    Analysts at Rabobank explained, "Although the BoJ made no changes to its existing QQE policy target overnight, it did alter the composition of its asset purchases. The BoJ has indicated that it will introduce some steps to supplement QQE which will include measures to support firms' investment in physical capital.

    This is in line with the BoJ's commitment to encourage Japanese firms to increases the wages of their workers in order to promote consumption demand and inflation potential. In recent months BoJ Kuroda has indicated little desire to ease policy further, but the broad-based falls in the value of the yen in 2013 and 2014 combined with the current strength of the yuan have taken the value of Japan's effective exchange rate to its lowest level since the 1970s (BoJ measure). Any tightening in Japanese monetary conditions as a result in a rise in JPY/CNY may make the BoJ more responses to further easing in the New Year."

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    USD/JPY levels

    The support has been washed away on the 121 handle in an aggressive price action to the downside from post BoJ highs at 123.55. Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank explained that USD/JPY has seen an emphatic rejection of resistance offered by the 123.77 recent high. Support remains the 119.11 2012-2015 uptrend, which we look to hold. "Above 123.77 will target 125.00/28 (the August high)."
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