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USD/JPY better offered below 119 in Tokyo's open

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 25, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - USD/JPY has opened the market in Tokyo on a big week for the Yen with a bias to the downside as markets discontinue with a better risk on environment compared to earlier starts in the year.

    Investors remain cautious, despite the fact that China as stabilized ahead of the New Year next month as the PBoC try all in its power to prop up investors in the Chinese stock market. At the same time, the ECB delivered a dovish meeting last week and that also helped risk improve along with the volatility in the commodities sector.

    Oil has been a major theme of late and markets are now starting to adjust to what looks to be the new norm with storage tanks filled to the brims in ever-increasing supply that is a cause for concern for Japan. The BoJ meeting this week will be closely monitored looking for repetition of such concerns coming from officials and subsequent easing from the Central Bank.

    "In our view, deteriorating inflation and fewer concerns over JPY weakness by politicians point to a higher probability of the BOJ easing next week than any other meetings in 2015. Speculative positions have turned net JPY long, and BOJ easing decisions might be effective as an initial reaction, as JPY positions will be forced to be unwound," explained analyst at Nomura in this week's, "Big week ahead in the G10 sector - Nomura"

    USD/JPY levels

    Technically, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet, explained that the daily chart shows that the technical indicators are pointing to cross their mid-lines towards the upside with a strong upward momentum, although the 100 DMA hovers around 120.70, supporting some further gains, but not yet confirming a long-term bullish trend. However, with today's opening offer, there is some leg work still to do and until an advance onto the 119 handle, the resistance remains strong.
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