USD/JPY bid and awaits further impetus while risk improves

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 13, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
    Likes Received:
    FXStreet (Guatemala) - USD/JPY has garnered a trickle of demand in the open of Tokyo with the Nikkei opening strongly. Risk has started to filter back through with the Chinese stock market rout's dust settling.

    Nevertheless, the recovery is shallow and still the bearish picture is in place on the longer term charts if the H&S is anything to go by, coupled with the ongoing uncertainties investors are facing, underpinning the upside in the yen as a safe haven. However, we have also seen another risk positive theme through the CNH today in the open as well, also supporting a better bid USD/JPY.

    However, not all analysts see that there is much further room to the downside fundamentally, and say that the move is oversold and expect a move back to 125 later on in the year. Meanwhile, for the time being, on a shorter term outlook at least, in this session there is scope for some movement one way or the other in China's trade balance that will be released shortly. Should the data reflect a contraction in the Chinese economy then that might be reason enough to spark further flight to safety and longer yen in the cash and derivatives market, potentially reversing anything still bid about USD/JPY it at the time of release.

    USD/JPY levels

    117.20 was offering support overnight, but that has shifted to the mid point of the handle now with the current better bid theme. Recoveries target a break of the 100 sma on the hourly sticks and closes above to reach 118.20 ahead of last week's recovery high of 11.80. To the downside, and accelerated shift below 116.69 recent lows opens scope for 114.00/113.95 zone that is the 23.6% retracement of the entire move up from the 2011 low ahead of the weekly cloud that lies at 113.52 on the wide.
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