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USD/JPY: big market event in BoJ coming up

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 28, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - USD/JPY is now the hot topic with the FOMC and RBNZ done for the time being, (or having not done anything at all in fact).

    The BoJ could be the event of the week, besides US GDP Q4 on Friday, (watch US GDP live here with FXStreet) as it has the makings to surprise, sort of, given how early on it is in 2016; Changes to their policy would be aggressive at this stage, but potentially required if they are to meet the objectives that were set back around three years ago into Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's administration and his launch of a three-pronged economic strategy of monetary and fiscal expansion and structural reforms.

    Markets are increasingly concerned for the little headway Japan is making and could be proclaimed as making the mistake of insufficiency while their inflation target is disappearing over the horizon. Until now, the most visibly effective part of the Abenomics program has been monetary policy with the BOJ having pioneered quantitative easing.

    Oil below $50, let alone $30, is problematic

    Oil has dropped below $30bbl of late and besides the initial stimulus in 2013 when inflation peaked in early 2014, there have been little signs that anything has worked since to stablise the economy towards growth while the economy in fact fell back into recession at the end of last year and with a rising government debt burden, now already in excess of 240 percent of gross domestic product, the world's highest, the BoJ really needs to do something and fast. However, analysts at BBH said, "The BOJ's inflation forecasts may be indicative of how high of a bar there may be to increase the asset purchases from the current JPY80 trillion a year."

    What about the Yen?

    In respect to the Yen, it is high and also alarming to officials and exporters. Analysts at Westpac, as we head towards the event this week explained, "The improved equity mood has helped place considerable distance between USD/JPY and last week's panicky lows around 116", adding, "We don't expect action as soon as Friday, but the risks are growing and won't disappear on a steady hand with inflation so far from target. Moreover, CFTC data shows leveraged funds are (slightly) long JPY, so fresh USD/JPY longs will be tempting, albeit dampened by a lack of confidence in Fed hikes. We retain a bias to buy dips on USD/JPY."
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