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USD/JPY: capped at 100 hr sma on strong recovery

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Apr 18, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    USD/JPY has rallied as markets recover and some after the Doha event that failed to find a concord between oil ministers in OPEC and non-OPEC nations meeting over the weekend.

    Yen was a heavy bid at the start of the Asian week on the uncertainties and how markets will react to the news after they return form the weekend to trading desks. However, the downside in oil was short-lived and oil recovered from lows of $37.61bbls WTI back to the $40.00bbls mark. Stocks have also recovered on the short-lived Doha news and the yen has subsequently headed for the back door again with USD/JPY testing territory towards the 109 handle and now in the green at 108.88 spot and 0.08% up.

    Meanwhile, Kuroda's headlines from the Wall Street journal are that BoJ will not hesitate to act to lift inflation after saying that recent Yen appreciation could undermine the BoJ's goal to raise inflation to the desired 2% target. He is obviously trying to off-set the green light that he gave to USD/JPY bears last week when he said that "Excessive Yen gains have been corrected in the past few days"?

    USD/JPY levels

    Through the 100 hr sma at 108.93, R1 is located at 109.27 and above Friday's 109.04 high.109.50 and R2 could be a strong level of resistance with stops and offers converging ahead of R3 at 109.81. Thereafter, we have the April 6th high at 110.64. To the downside, 108.12 has been the US session low while overnight, the price bottomed at 107.82 intraday. S3 is located at 107.59 and 107.50 is an area of potentially strong support and bids.

    "Below 107.63 lies major support – namely 106.63/38.2% retracement of the move up from 2012. In this vicinity we also find the 200 month ma at 105.86 and we suspect that the market will attempt to stabilise here," explained by Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank.

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