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USD/JPY: Close above 118.00 could signal a bottom - BBH

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 13, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Córdoba) - According to analysts from Brown Brother Harriman, USD/JPY gave signals that could have bottomed but more is needed.

    Key Quotes:

    “While the euro often carves out a bottom, the dollar's lows against the yen are frequently characterized by spikes. That was the case, for example in the middle of October and late-August and the low (~JPY115.60) in December 2014. Such a spike may have been recorded yesterday. A close above JPY118 would boost confidence that a low is in place. However, much technical damage has been inflicted. It may take a move back through the JPY118.70-JPY119.15 band to be anything significant.

    “The yen's sensitivity to global financial market disturbances and the fact that equity markets remain on edge despite today's better showing means that many short and medium term participants may not want to be exposed to a short yen until they have greater confidence that China is stabilizing. “

    “Although speculators, as of a week ago, had the first net long yen position in the futures market in three years, we are still skeptical that safe haven is really the best way to describe or explain the yen's strength. Instead, we suspect that disorderly markets encourage Japanese investors to keep more of their savings at home, and prompts an unwind of short yen long risk asset positions."

    “Both the investment income and the tourism may have been inflated in part by the decline in the yen.”

    “Some economists forecasting the yen put emphasis on its current account surplus. We do not show a robust relationship.”

    “In addition to equities stabilizing, another development that would lend support to the dollar is yield differentials. At the end of last year, the US 10-year premium over Japan rose to 203 bp, which was the most since September 2014. Yesterday, near 185 bp, it was smallest in a month.“
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