USD/JPY continues to fall, new 2-day low

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 2, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
    Likes Received:
    FXStreet (Bali) - USD/JPYhas accelerated to the downside after the RBA policy decision (rates unchanged at 2%), with the spot now exchanging hands at day lows near 120.60, with 121.50 mid-round number coming into focus.

    The heaviness in USD/JPY has been a constant since the get go in Tokyo, with the pair having a hard time to find strong enough bids despite the constructive bullish tone in the Nikkei 225, which only turned lower in the last 30 minutes or so, struggling again to break 17,900.00.

    USD/JPY not a one-way road

    While the case to play long-side this market remains intact, following the negative rate decision by the BoJ last Friday, market participants should not underestimate nor act complacent with potential downside prospects in USD/JPY.

    Some of the indications implying short-side business can still find new legs, is the pricing of options, with Yen calls still being paid at a significant premium vs puts. Another risk for Yen bears short term has to do with markets facing new rounds of risk aversion, in which case, the Yen should benefit.

    Last but not least, the Fed may start sounding more dovish on its statements. Fed's Vice Chairman Fischer, who said on a speech Monday: ""At this point, it is difficult to judge the likely implications of this volatility. If these developments lead to a persistent tightening of financial conditions, they could signal a slowing in the global economy that could affect growth and inflation in the United States. But we have seen similar periods of volatility in recent years that have left little permanent imprint on the economy. As the FOMC said in its statement last week, we are closely monitoring global economic and financial developments and assessing their implications for the labor market and inflation, and for the balance of risks to the outlook"
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