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USD/JPY daily RSI not confirmed new low

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Mar 23, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    USD/JPY opened in Tokyo moving only 10 pips to the downside in what appears to be a quiet looking session ahead.

    Overnight, the Brussels terror attacks was the catalyst for a short-lived flight to safetybefore the markets recovered and carried on as normal. The yen lost all the gains and the USD/JPY bulls took over, exceeding the opening highs for the overnight sessions, taking the price to 112.48 the high.

    Fed's Evans's transformation from dove to hawk

    From the US shift, Fed's Evans changed his dovish tune. Speaking in Chicargo, he came across quite hawkish. "Chicago Fed president Evans said the latest dot plot projection (implying two more hikes in 2016) was a decent assumption. He saw 2016 growth between 2.0% and 2.5%, with domestic fundamentals good but global developments a drag. He expressed a “wait and see” approach regarding risk assessment before hiking again. Evans normally leans towards lower rates so it is interesting that he is happy to talk about 2 hikes this year, with markets only priced for one," explained analysts at Westpac.

    USD/JPY events to watch for

    We now turn heads to the rest of the week's scheduled events in US durable goods (Thursday 12:30 gmt), Q4 GDP (third estimate) (Friday 12:30 gmt). For the next month, China's manufacturing and US non-farm payrolls are key.

    USD/JPY levels

    There has been a near term rebound in the price on the daily sticks recovering from 110.67 16th March lows. Initial resistance is at 112.99 offered by the 20 day ma and remains capped by the short-term resistance line at 114.16, as noted by Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank. "USD/JPY's daily RSI has not confirmed the new low at 110.67. This suggests a loss of downside momentum and we are seeing."

    Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained that in the 4 hours chart, " In the 4- hours chart, the Momentum indicator bounced sharply higher from its 100 level while the RSI indicator also heads north within positive territory, supporting a continued rally, should Asian shares emulate their American counterparts."
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