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USD/JPY: Dip-buying demand from retail investors - Nomura

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Oct 29, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Bali) - Yujiro Goto, Global FX Strategist at Nomura, notes that Japanese retail investors will likely be dip-buyers of USD/JPY if the BOJ disappoints the market on Friday.

    Key Quotes

    "Ahead of FOMC meeting (done) and Friday’s BOJ meeting, IMM data have been showing limited JPY short positions, and Japanese margin traders' JPY short positions have also declined since mid-October."

    "At one of the biggest brokers, 66.9% of USD/JPY positions are long positions, declining from 83.6% on 14 October. While USD/JPY long positions were likely over JPY2000bn two weeks ago, long positions are likely to have declined to around JPY1250bn ($10.5bn) now."

    "As USD/JPY recovered to 120, Japanese margin traders, or Mrs. Watanabe, took profits aggressively last week. JPY short positions are likely to have recovered slightly so far this week, but the amount is likely to be well below the recent peak."

    "As USD/JPY long positions held by margin traders were unwound while foreign portfolio investment via toshins slowed, Japanese retail investors will likely be dip-buyers of USD/JPY if the BOJ disappoints the market on Friday."

    "Lifers' investment plans for H2 FY2015 also suggest strong dip-buying demand, when USD/JPY depreciates toward 115. Pension funds' foreign investment is also likely to accelerate if USD/JPY depreciates, to rebalance their portfolio."

    "In the near term, downside risk to USD/JPY is high ahead of the BOJ meeting, while domestic investors' foreign investment flows to buy on dips would limit the downside risk to USD/JPY.
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