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USD/JPY downside wide open below 115.50

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 10, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    USD/JPY is back down testing the 115 handle with recent dips below to 114.89 so far. The markets are able to take advantage of the price so long as it remains below 115.50/00.

    Risk apatite is sidelined in this environment with the media hyping up the doom and gloom stories of a US recession, but tomorrow Yellen will likely try and sugar coat the situation and will remain 'overoptimistic' despite there being obvious cracks in the US economies outlook and increased risks in 2016 developing.

    How strong can the Yen get?

    In respect to the strength of the Yen, that will now depend on what the Japanese authorities can do to provent it appreciating too fast, because should the market want it higher, then it will go higher and there is not a great deal the authorities can do in fact.

    "Finance Minister Aso said movements in markets have been rough and he will continue to watch FX market movements closely. His comments are bolder than in mid-January, as he just said he was paying attention to the FX market on 22 January," explained analysts at Nomura."In addition, Vice Finance Minister for International Finance Asawaka also said FX moves have been rough and he is watching the market. Economy Minister Ishihara said a weak JPY that boosts capex is positive for the economy, while he is going to monitor the equity market. These comments suggest the MOF is not necessarily going to intervene in the FX market anytime soon, but their concerns over recent price action in FX and equity markets are high," explained the analysts.

    USD/JPY levels

    Technically, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet , "In the 1 hour chart, the price is consolidating well below its moving averages, with the 100 SMA capping the upside now around 116.60, and the technical indicators lacking directional strength within neutral territory.

    In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators hover around oversold territory, while the price is far below its 100 and 200 SMAs, indicating the strength of the bearish move. The pair has scope now to extend its decline towards the 112.50 region, particularly if Yellen suggests any further rate hike will be on hold until June."
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