USD/JPY en-route to 125.00, sooner than later? - Nomura

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 2, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Bali) - Yujiro Goto, FX Strategist at Nomura, expects the decision by the BOJ on negative rates to reaccelerate JPY depreciation trend, calling for 122.00 by end of March and 125.00 by year end, although adding that it would be not surprising if these targets are reaches much sooner.

    Key Quotes

    "We judged the BOJ and JPY were both at a critical juncture before the meeting last week, and Governor Kuroda responded by delivering the most effective policy options currently available, in our view."

    "USD/JPY reaction on day 1 was smaller than its reactions after the QQE 1 and 2 announcements, but we see the decision as highly JPY negative in the medium term for three reasons:"

    1) it showed policy makers’ clear commitment to preventing USD/JPY depreciation to below 115, and 115 would be the new “Kuroda floor”

    2) the BOJ now has a new option for easing, which keeps markets alert to possible BOJ surprises, discouraging speculative JPY long positions"

    3) broadly lower JGB yields are likely to accelerate fixed income outflows from Japan."

    "We have been expecting USD/JPY to recover to 122 by end-March and 125 by end-June, but we would not be surprised if USD/JPY reached these targets much sooner."
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