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USD/JPY H&S offers max potential for break of 20m sma

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 12, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - USD/JPY has been in supply with the Yen being the top performer at the start of 2016 in risk off mode markets on the back of the rout in Chinese stock markets and subsequent ricochets worldwide.

    The Yen has H&S on the monthly is defined now with a break of the 117 handle and recent test of the monthly 20 sma at 116.90 with a low scored at 116.68. However, some analysts see that the move is overdone for the time being and a turn in risk sentiment could see the major unit back towards 125 in coming months between the divergence of the associated CB's and positive data in the US. Moreover, the BoJ are ready to do what is necessary to achieve the 2% inflation target in the given time periods and that too should weigh on the Yen in due course.

    USD/JPY levels

    Technically, however, analysts at Scotiabank explained, "Momentum indicators are off their oversold levels from last week as trend signals hint to early shifts in the balance of risk. Near term support is expected at 117.20, with resistance expected above 118.00". Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank explained also, "The outlook is looking increasingly negative short term and at this stage we are unable to rule out losses back to the 114.00/113.95 zone, this the 23.6% retracement of the entire move up from the 2011 low. Please note the base of the weekly cloud lies at 113.52.
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