USD/JPY: minor 'post-shock' recovery consolidating on 117 handle

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 12, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - USD/JPY is trading in a phase of consolidation, despite Japan returning. There is really very little action as the major has settled with the recovery from the US lows at 117.18 overnight after equities rebounded to some degree and priced out the less committed Yen bulls before the shift handed over to Asia. The price, however, remains in the bear's lair and capped at the hourly 50 sma at 117.72 that is just below the highs of 117.83.

    USD/JPY tide starting to turn?

    We await, what seems to be the usual now, China open and fixing of the Yuan as the main driver of the Yen as markets continue to be on the lookout for reasons to remain in the safe havens. However, perhaps that tide could start to turn here as we enter a phase of consolidation and the mood changes as investors with that idle cash now start to look for a return.

    While markets fully expect more downside to come that may just become the thing of the norm and it will take more than a few percentage points down in the bourses to dis-encourage risk appetite.

    Also of note, if we allow Central Banks to come back to light, Kuroda was recently saying that the BOJ is ready to take bolder steps when necessary to achieve the 2% target. In that case, the Yen may not be able to garner much further strength from here outside of another shock.

    USD/JPY levels

    Technically, however, the price remains in a steep and narrow bearish channel although the resistance of the 20 sma on the 4hr is starting to erode in this phase of lower lows. Should the momentum pick up again, that would indeed be indicative and will bring in the 114.00/113.95 zone back into focus in the near - medium term which is the 23.6% retracement of the entire move up from the 2011 low. The base of the weekly cloud lies at 113.52.
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