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USD/JPY: Risk-off Asia feeding bears' appetite

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Oct 13, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Bali) - Asian markets have intensified the risk-off sentiment, which has led USD/JPY to incur in further losses, briefly breaking Monday's US low at 119.90, setting its cheapest level since Oct 9th at 119.85.

    Nikkei 225 under pressure

    The Nikkei 225 is trading almost 1% down, the S&P500 futures have declines by 0.15%, while the Chinese futures index will open at -0.8& on the back of a solid 3%+ performance on Monday, following comments from Chinese officials that the correction in the equity market appears to have run its course for the time being.

    Awaiting a much-needed resolution in USD/JPY

    Looking at the pricing of options in USD/JPY, it has continued to decline in recent weeks, with implied volatility standing at 8.86 by Monday close, while historical volatility (standard 20-periods) remains depressed around the 4.5. This implies a market still keen to sell volatility to adjust both curves, which also means that when a resolution of the choppy range occurs, the breakout is expected to be fast and furious, as those selling volatility will have to go in favour of the breaking direction in order to hedge their risk, thus fueling further the potential breakout.

    BOJ: Market pricing out Oct easing risk?

    From a fundamental perspective, while there has been growing expectations of further easing by the BOJ at its month-end meeting, evidence continues to emerge that JPY bears may be disappointed near term.' During the weekend, Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda, crossed the wires, via CNBC, on the sidelines of the IMF meeting in Peru, saying the inflation dynamics in the country continue to evolve as anticipated. Kuroda added that if necessary, they can further ease monetary policy but at this moment the inflation dynamics were in line with the central bank's expectations."
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