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USD/JPY: still room on daily sticks to 116.00

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 4, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - USD/JPY remains better offered, despite last Friday when the BoJ's announcement of a negative interest rate policy under QQE came as a surprise to markets.

    The US dollar has been sold of for a combination of poor data and speculation that the Fed will be holding for longer, combined with a jittery, nervous and volatile market. We went from a high of 121.61 to 116.70-118 range this week. Analysts at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi explained that the negative interest rate policy is not expected to stimulate investment and lift growth potential.

    "The BoJ did its best to explain the impact of the negative interest rate policy." The analysts added, "Over the upcoming week, the non-farm payroll report might not lift USD/JPY significantly. Japan's balance of payment data may confirm that Japan's external position is improving. Japan's foreign direct investment could reach a historic high. The trade deficit will narrow further...As often happens in February, the proceeds of US Treasury redemptions might be repatriated to Japan and limit the rise of USD/JPY even after the BoJ's monetary easing."

    USD/JPY levels

    Technically, USD/JPY is in oversold territory with RSI (14) at 30 on the 4hr chart while the daily still has room to the downside with RSI on the daily sticks in neutral at 51. On the downside, 116.00/50 are key targets while a strong correction would target 117.20 initially, with longer term moves towards 118.60/119.10.
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