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USD/JPY supported on risk appatite ahead of FOMC

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 17, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    USD/JPY has been recovering from this years risk-off lows as investors look for returns on their idle capital.

    Oil has been a driver or risk sentiment and has been correlated with the USD/JPY of late. There has been some conflicting news on oil today driving the price back and forth, but the Iranian oil minister gave the commodity a boost later in the session and sees the price back above $30 bbl, supporting USD/JPY.

    FOMC minutes coming up

    We now await the FOMC minutes today that should get some attention.

    "While the Fed is unlikely to tip its hand, the minutes could shed some light on its decision-making process. The Fed Funds futures strip is barely pricing in any tightening in 2016 and is only pricing in slightly more than one hike in 2017. This continues to strike us as too dovish, especially when the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model suggests a rebound in Q1 growth to 2.7%. We expect the pendulum of sentiment to swing the other way as US data continue to improve, which should bolster the dollar's fortunes," explained analysts at BBH.

    Oil extends gains as Iran headlines flow

    USD/JPY levels

    USD/JPY was pressured by the 200 sma on the hourly chart on a look in at the upside. The 200 sma currently stands at 114.34. A break of this would be significant as it is where the 20 and 50 sma on the 4hr chart converges for a test of the 115 handle.

    Above 115.00 and the Feb 5th doji near 116.80 and the 20 dam at 116.84 guards118.00. To the downside, 112.00 and 110.00 are the psychological levels. The pivot is at 114.15 with S1 at 113.41, S2 at 112.85 and S3 at 112.11.
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