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USD/JPY under pressure in Tokyo, awaiting China

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Oct 8, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - USD/JPY has been under pressure in the open off the Nikkei when the Asian markets opened modestly higher on the open, but then found pressures mounting up, along with S&P futures and the currency risk barometer, AUD/JPY heading further south below the hourly 20 SMA.

    In respect of today's risk profile in Asia, read here.
    (Risk-off in Asia? Nikkei 225, SP500 under mild pressure).

    USD/JPY has been testing the upside to the 120 handle, scoring a few pips above there after a US session afternoon sell-off and a positive close on Wall Street again. However, China returns and markets may be jittery and investors wanting to avoid being caught long of anything too risky.

    Analysts at Westpac explained, "The Shanghai Composite will have plenty of catching up to do. The iShares China Large-Cap ETF which tracks the FTSE China 50 rose 9% while SHCOMP was closed, but it is of course only a guide, with the Chinese retail investors who dominate the local market unlikely to be so buoyant.

    "USD/CNY last traded on CFETS at 6.3571 on 30 Sep."

    "A fixing around 6.3500 seems reasonable but will take a few days to see whether there is a change in the skew of fixings now that President Xi's visit to the US is complete and the USD mood is less robust."

    Also, the risk to USD/JPY was discussed by us earlier here,
    (Watch out, China's about!)

    Meanwhile, casting minds back, the BoJ left things on hold yesterday and more on that can be read about with our preview to that meeting looked into here (BoJ: Little clues on further easing by month-end).

    We had a slew of Japanese data prior to the open including, foreign investments and trade balance. Looking ahead, we have the FOMC minutes tomorrow and we are in anticipation of the BoJ again on the 30th of this month.

    USD/JPY neutral (Spot 119.92, below pivot 120.30, still within familiar ranges)

    Technically, the bullish triangle formation that could be emerging was mentioned overnight in the following report. ( USD/JPY: Bullish triangle pattern emerging?)

    USD/JPY levels

    A break of the 200 DMA at 120.88 opens up 121.76/79, the late August high and the 61.8% retracement while a breakdown to the 118.33 March low en-route to the 2012-2015 116.62 uptrend to confirm a strong bearish trend again.
    For more information, read our latest forex news.
     

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