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USD/JPY upside not done yet - Nomura

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 27, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Nomura Bank explained that the USD/JPY has been trading in a narrow range around 120 so far in 2015.

    Key Quotes:

    "After appreciating strongly in 2013 and 2014, the pace of USD/JPY appreciation slowed as we expected. However, we still do not think USD/JPY has peaked. As the Fed is finally about to embark on its tightening cycle, we expect USD/JPY to resume appreciating toward 130 in 2016."

    "Although the BOJ has kept its policy unchanged, we expect the Bank to keep its dovish bias in 2016. BOJ easing in 2016 cannot be ruled out (our economists expect the Bank to ease in April)."

    "We also expect JPY selling by domestic investors/businesses to continue. We do not expect Japanese policymakers to react very negatively if JPY weakens to the 130 level, improving corporate profits, on top of lower energy prices, which will be an important driver for a positive outcome from the wage talks."

    "Given monetary policy divergence and expected strong JPY selling by Japanese investors and businesses, we expect USD/JPY to keep trending higher. We keep our end-2016 target unchanged at 130, although upside risks above 130 cannot be ruled out, especially if the Fed accelerates its tightening pace more than the market currently expects."

    "We are currently flat in JPY positions, but into 2016 we recommend keeping a USD/JPY long bias, while we expect volatility short positions to be frequently attractive too. We forecast EUR/JPY to trade around 130 throughout 2016, but downside risks are bigger than upside risks."
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