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USD longs declined, EUR shorts increased - Rabobank

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Mar 14, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    Jane Foley, FX Strategist at Rabobank, lists down the IMM net speculators’ positioning as at 08 March 2016.

    Key Quotes

    • “EUR shorts increased for the second consecutive week ahead of the ECB Council meeting in anticipation of more policy accommodation.

    • USD longs declined for a fifth straight week. This is despite the firmer tone of US releases such as CPI inflation, PCE and Q4 GDP data. Although the Fed are widely expected to rein in its forecast of four rate hikes this year at this week’s FOMC meeting, we still think the Fed could hike twice later in the year.

    • JPY longs have increased for five consecutive weeks suggesting continued safe haven demand. JPY longs are now at their highest levels since 2008 suggesting that the BoJ’s negative interest rate has had little impact in fending off inflows.

    • Net sterling shorts increased to their highest levels since July 2013. Although the Budget this week is a focus, attention is set to be dominated by politics in the approach to the June 23 referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU.

    • Net short CHF positions dropped back close to zero having held in negative territory for seven consecutive weeks. The better tone of risk appetite suggests net positions could pop back into positive ground soon.

    • Net AUD long positions have climbed higher in response to optimism regarding the domestic economy and the better tone of iron ore prices. CAD shorts dropped for the sixth consecutive week with the better price of oil offering support.”
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