USD/MXN retreats after hitting 3-week highs

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Apr 6, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    The Mexican peso continues to move with a bearish bias against the US dollar as it has been the case since the beginning of April. USD/MXN reached today at 17.84, the highest level since March 16; it pulled back afterward and it was trading at 17.65, before the release of the Federal Reserve minutes.

    The pair yesterday posted the fourth daily gain in a row as it continues to recover after falling late in March to 17.09, 3-month low. The recent rally of the US dollar pushed the price above important resistance levels and also on top of the 20-day moving average signaling a possible pause in the bearish correction and a short-term bottom.

    MXN outlook

    Las week, the rating agency Moody’s lowered the outlook of Mexican debt from stable to negative. “In our view, the risks cited by Moody’s are very forward looking, and do not reflect our generally constructive view on Mexico and MXN, though we recognize that the Pemex issue remains a key sentiment drag on Mexican assets and would prefer to see USDMXN in the 18.00 region to better reflect these risks. By end 2016, we continue to see USDMXN lower at 17.25, however”, said Cristian Maggio, Head of Emerging Markets Strategy at TD Securities.

    Tomorrow inflation data from March will be released in Mexico. Annual CPI is expected to drop from 2.87% to 2.63%. Analysts and Banxico officials estimate that inflation will rise toward the 3% target during the next months.
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