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USD: Net long positions at its lowest level since July 2014 - SocGen

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Apr 18, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    Kit Juckes, Research Analyst at Societe Generale, suggests that last week’s CFTC data put the speculative FX futures net long position in US dollars at its lowest level since July 2014, as the market continues to shed dollar longs.

    Key Quotes

    “Surely that gives the dollar room to rally – Against something, anyway! In positioning terms, yen longs on the CFTV data are now bigger than at any time since the series started in 1992, but I’m a bit bruised by looking for a USD/JPY reversal too early.

    IKMM data show continued build-up of longs in AUD, CAD and NZD but none of them are at extreme levels – rather, they have bounced form extreme shorts. The data still slow net shorts in MXN and a much-reduced short in EUR, while finally, the sterling short continues to build.

    Overall, this measure of positioning at any rate, suggest that while cheaper oil will help the dollar, it won’t send it dramatically higher unless we US data sends in the cavalry and revives rate-hike expectations, not easy to do on a day with a calendar limited to NAHB housing figures, and a week with housing starts, existing home sales and the Philly Fed index. Whatever else we buy, it won’t be volatility.”
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