USD playbook for January FOMC decision - RBS

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 27, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Brian Daingerfield, FX Trading Strategist at RBS, suggests that they expect the Fed Funds rate target range to be left unchanged.

    Key Quotes

    “The Fed will release a short FOMC statement but there will be no new forecast update and no press conference by Chair Yellen.

    To be sure, since the December meeting, market volatility has risen, financial conditions have tightened, and energy prices and some market-based measures of inflation expectations have fallen further. The Fed’s ability to acknowledge these developments without overemphasizing their influence on what remains a still-solid fundamental economic backdrop is the tightrope the statement must walk.

    How Fed addresses these issues provide the clearest path to a dovish surprise. Unsurprisingly, our most dovish listed scenario includes a reintroduction of language, similar to September 2015, that references risks to the inflation outlook from international developments. We see two key risks on the hawkish side – first, the FOMC could opt not to add new language on international developments to the statement, which we call “passively” hawkish.

    A more “active” hawkish risk would be an introduction of language similar to the October meeting, whereby the Fed attempts to “realign” the (increasingly dovish) market expectation with its own “dot plot” of Fed Funds rate. Interestingly, we see a potential surprise outcome as one where the Fed offers changes that are both hawkish and dovish.”
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