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USD: Spending data released earlier than planned – MUFG

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 23, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Derek Halpenny, European Head of GMR at MUFG, suggests that part of today’s monthly consumer spending data for November was inadvertently released late yesterday in an embarrassing mishap for the Commerce department.

    Key Quotes

    “The nominal consumer spending month-on-month gain in November was 0.3%. The real data is what matters for GDP and that based on the nominal print may well come in as expected at 0.1%.”

    “The core PCE inflation data for November will also be released today and given the FOMC is now monitoring “actual” inflation readings as well as expected inflation means the core PCE inflation data is now top-tier data for the markets. The quarterly GDP data yesterday did show a slightly higher core PCE inflation print in the third quarter (1.4% versus 1.3% previously) and further evidence today of an upturn in November will intensify the belief that underlying inflation in the US is gradually on the rise.”

    “Price action in the foreign exchange market certainly suggests that the festive vacation period has begun with liquidity and volatility both on the decline. Momentum and positioning can be important factors in determining direction and the squeeze higher yesterday in EUR/USD to an intra-day high of 1.0984 looked like it might have sparked a larger move. Technically, a break of the resistance line from the May 2014 high of 1.3993 and the October 2015 high of 1.1495 comes in between 1.1130 and 1.1085 through to year-end and a break of that could spark a year-end squeeze higher. That is perhaps where the risk lies over the festive period.”
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