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USDCAD: All eyes on elections – TDS

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Oct 19, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
    Likes Received:
    FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at TDS, do not foresee much price action for USDCAD today with the election today and the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision on Wednesday.

    Key Quotes

    “The latest polls suggest that a Liberal minority is likely, and should a change in government occur, we view a minority government as CAD negative—at the margin—as it still breeds uncertainty.”

    “In animating the risks for the currency around the election however, it would seem that a majority government or NDP-led government (minority or majority) would offer some potential for a knee-jerk reaction for funds, but we ultimately expect the wider trend in USD should dominate. The USD is a touch bid this morning, mostly due to weakness in the EUR.”

    “We think the more immediate and substantive concern for USDCAD is the Bank of Canada interest rate decision on Wednesday. It is widely expected that the BoC will remain on hold but this week’s meeting will feature an updated Monetary Policy Report. Overall, we do not expect the BoC to change its tune on the outlook as the Bank will have to weigh concern over a weaker international backdrop against improvements in domestic Q3 data (we are tracking 2.5% for Q3 GDP versus the BoC’s 1.5% estimate in July).”

    “We still view the 1.28/1.29 region as a very important area for USDCAD and we think that it still offers some appeal to add small longs from a strategic perspective (i.e. a weak CAD will need to persist to facilitate the structural realignment in the economy). Our fair value estimate today sits at 1.2812.”
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