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USDCAD: Buy on dips - TDS

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 19, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at TDS, suggests that USDCAD feels a touch heavy but, we would add to strategic longs on a dip towards 1.3220, which broadly coincides with the 61.8% Fibo level from the October lows.

    Key Quotes

    “USDCAD continues to have trouble breaking above 1.3380 even with WTI temporarily breaking the $40/bbl mark while the Fed minutes had very little impact. The tide may begin to change however, as we have warned all week that domestic data is expected to lean on the negative side with retail sales tomorrow (which will also be simultaneously released with CPI).”

    “But today, we receive the wholesale trade report which tends to receive very little attention from the market but is nonetheless an important input into our monthly tracking model for industry real GDP.”

    “We expect wholesale sales to be unchanged in September but note that risks are skewed to the downside following a very poor manufacturing report earlier this week. If realized, this would place downside risks to our current -0.1% m/m tracking for industry GDP, implying a poor handoff to Q4 growth and place downside risks around the BoC’s 1.5% estimate.”

    “Under this risk scenario, we still see the BoC sidelined as an impending Fed hike will provide “stimulus” through the currency channel.”
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