USDCAD: Searching for the bottom – TDS

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Oct 7, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Ned Rumpeltin, European Head of Currency Strategy at TD Securities, notes that the USDCAD pair has traded through support at 1.3013 this morning, but spot has bounced fairly abruptly off of 1.2993 – a level that is consistent with the congestion zone seen during July and August and this comes despite interest rate differentials that continue to ratchet in Canada’s favor and a fourth consecutive day of higher oil prices.

    Key Quotes

    “Our estimate of fair value remains lower, around 1.2765 today, but we think further progress in that direction may become increasingly difficult until we get a clearer picture of accelerating Canadian growth. There, we remain somewhat skeptical that such evidence is likely to appear soon and suspect we may be facing more of a range-trading environment for USDCAD in coming days. While it may not have as great an impact on the policy outlook as it once did, markets will be watching Friday’s Canadian employment data with considerable interest.”

    “The local data calendar is rather light today with only building permits on tap. The market consensus for the August edition is for a 0.3% m/m increase which will reverse about half of the observed 0.6% decline in the prior month. Given the inherent volatility in this series, a larger move is certainly a possibility. The residential component from this release will help to inform our forecast for September housing starts where we are a touch above the market in looking for a pullback to 208k annualized units.”
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