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USDCAD: Stabilized for now - TDS

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Oct 8, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Research team at TDS, note that the USDCAD pair looks to have stabilized, for now and they are watching for a break to the downside is 1.2950/70 area which is key near-term support.

    Key Quotes

    “A clean break below would open up downside potential to 1.2800 but we think that USDCAD may be in the process of forming a base. Even though our high frequency fair value model suggests spot should be trading closer to 1.2885 we would be careful in chasing it lower given the washout in USDCAD longs over the past few trading sessions (which were not overly extended to begin with at least according to the IMM data).”

    “Rate spreads continue to be the driver of the valuation gap but we tend to find that when spot sits about two standard deviations away from FV that a correction takes place. So, for all intents and purposes, we think the bulk of the move lower in USDCAD has been largely observed.”
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