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USDCAD: Trading all around - TDS

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 24, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at TDS, notes that it was a wild early morning session for USDCAD yesterday that saw a near 100 point swing in less than an hour.

    Key Quotes

    “The swift move followed headlines from OPEC that Saudi Arabia would cooperate at the December 4th meeting for more stable prices. Markets interpreted this as bullish for crude oil, which saw the active contract pop nearly $2/bbl higher almost instantaneously following the headline release. We are reticent to read too much into the OPEC headline at this point given that Iran supply will be coming on-stream through 2016. So, the overall backdrop for crude prices should remain negative for the CAD as Canada’s terms of trade will remain under pressure in the weeks ahead.”

    “Under most circumstances, we would grow increasingly concerned that in the face of a shooting star candle technical formation in USDCAD, as it appears we witnessed yesterday, a trend reversal may be in the cards. This time, however, we remain bullish on the pair overall.”

    “Spot found support at 1.3325 today and we think the trendline that has provided a solid backbone to the advance over the course of November will continue to do so. This comes in at around the 1.3310 region today. At the same time, our Fair Value estimate continues to trend higher as well, and comes in at 1.3425 today.”

    “The data calendar is quiet this week for Canada, so focus will be on the US data. We suspect with markets in a wait and see mode until next week’s extremely dense risk agenda. That suggests that overall USD inertia will carry the day for CAD. But as we noted yesterday, the data this week should lean constructively so we are biased to see a bit more USDCAD topside action.”
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