Week ahead: China trade balance, Boe rate decision, US retail sales data in focus

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 11, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Mumbai) - The most important economic events this week include the BoE’s rate decision, UK’s industrial and manufacturing production data, China’s trade balance, Australia’s employment report and of course the US producer price index and retail sales data scheduled to be released on Friday. Japan’s machinery order data will also be released this week and if market expectations hold true, machinery orders are seen falling sharply from the erstwhile 10.3 per cent increase. In the wake of the heightening tensions over China’s slowing economy, markets will closely watch the trade balance data. China’s central bank last week had devalued the yuan twice with the primary objective of helping exporters. China’s weak fundamentals have made investors jittery and had caused stock prices to slide first on Monday and then again later in the week.
    As Australia rebalances its economy away from the resource sector, it will be interesting to watch whether other sectors have been able to make up for the lost jobs in the resource related industries.

    The BoE will announce its rate decision on Thursday. Once again the central bank will likely hold rates steady. Given the low growth in wage factor and also a decline noticed in manufacturing sector and exports, it is unlikely that the bank will move any time soon. Governor Carney has not shared any detail on the probable timing of the rate hike.

    The US jobs report released last week revealed further strengthening of the labor market. It did ease tensions that had risen over poor manufacturing PMI figures. However, to determine the overall health of the economy, number of other factors need to be monitored. Markets will watch out for retail sales data to gauge consumer demand in the market and the industrial production data will throw light on the factory activities.

    Several Federal Reserve presidents will speak this week. Lockhart will speak today.Fed's Lacker will speak tomorrow.Evan will speak on Wednesday while Bullard will speak on Thursday. The week will be concluded with William Dudley's speech on Friday. Markets will watch out fpr these speeches to get an idea how the Fed wants to pace out the subsequent rate hikes

    11th January

    Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence- Sentix investor confidence is expected to dip in January to 12.2 as against 15.7 recoded earlier.

    Canada Housing Starts- Seasonally adjusted housing starts expected to drop in December to 200.0k from 212.0k

    Japan Current Account- November’s non-seasonally current account expected to come in at 858.5 billion yen as against 1,458.4 billion yen recorded earlier.

    12th January

    China New Loans- New loans are believed to have dipped to 700 billion from the previous 709 billion.

    UK Industrial Production-
    Industrial production is estimated to have stagnated in November as against a small 0.1 per cent increase seen earlier. Year on year, it is estimated to have remained unchanged at 1.7 per cent in November.

    UK Manufacturing Production- Manufacturing production is believed to have risen 0.1 per cent in November after having contracted 0.4 per cent previously. Year on year, it is expected to contract 0.8 per cent as against the 0.1 per cent contraction seen earlier.

    13th January

    China Trade Balance-
    China’s December trade balance is believed to have shrunk to $53 billion from $ 54.1 billion seen in October. Imports can be expected to come in at -11.5 per cent while exports can be expected to be at -8.0 per cent.

    Euro zone Industrial Production- Industrial production in the bloc contracted 0.3 per cent in November as against 0.6 per cent increase recorded earlier. Year on year, it is estimated to have dipped 1.3 per cent as against 1.9 per cent rise seen earlier.

    Japan Machinery Orders- Year on year, machinery orders are expected to fall to 6.3 per cent in November as against an earlier rise of 10.3 per cent rise seen previously. Month on month, it is estimated to have contracted 7.9 per cent as against 10.7 per cent rise seen earlier.

    14th January

    Australia Employment Report- Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is expected to come in at 5.9 per cent as against 5.8 per cent rate seen in November. Participation rate can be expected to come in at 65.2 per cent.

    BoE Interest Rate Decision- The BoE is expected to keep rates unchanged at the record low of 0.5 per cent. The MPC is again expected to vote 8-1 in determining rates.

    15th January

    US Retail Sales- Retails sales estimated to have stagnated in December after clocking 0.2 per cent rise in November.

    US Producer Price Index- US producer price index is expected to have contracted 0.1 per cent in December, down from 0.3 per cent increase seen in November.

    Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index- The index for January can be expected to rise to 93 from the earlier reading of 92.6.
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