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Week ahead: ECB, BoC rate decisions in focus; markets watch out for China GDP & US CPI data

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 18, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Mumbai) - The economic calendar this week looks choc-o-bloc. A slew of market moving indicators will be released and two central banks will meet to decide on interest rates. Decisions on interest have grown to become extremely significant as the weak fundamentals in the major economies necessitate addition support. The ECB will meet on 21st, Thursday to decide whether or not they should slash rates further into the negative territory as deemed necessary by the markets, given the persistently low inflation, slowdown in the manufacturing sector and high unemployment rate. It will be interesting to see whether or not the policy makers give up their wait and watch stance to ease further.

    The BoC will also meet this week to decide on whether it should cut interest rates from the already low 0.5 per cent to offer support to the economy hit by falling global commodity prices particularly oil. Canada finds itself battling low oil price which has forced it to keep loonie weak and inflation which is the result of a weak currency. The complex situation has raised pressure on the BoC to act in a manner that will help to strike a balance.

    The most important event this week is the release of China’s Q4 GDP. Economic indicators released this month have heightened the fears of slowdown in the world’s second largest economy. The recent suspension of trading activities on account of sharply declining stock prices twice in the first week of trading in 2016, as well as the devaluation of yuan raised concerns about the health of the economy and caused markets to stumble. The GDP growth figures might bring bad news to the already jittery investors. China may witness more capital flight if tomorrow’s GDP comes in as per expectations.

    Euro zone and UK will release the CPI data this week. With countries fighting to raise inflation as the oil slump continues to keep a check on prices, the CPI data becomes very significant. The CPI data is a decisive factor for the central banks which charts rate policies. US CPI will also be released this week and it is expected to have stagnated. It is of course not a good news for the economy where the inflation rate is already far below the Fed’s target. The Fed has said it will raise rate four times this year if the inflation growth is on track. With the current inflation rate, that seems like a far-fetched agenda.

    Besides, other important data like UK retail sales and PPI, Euro zone Markit PMI and US housing starts data will slated to be released this week

    18th January

    Japan Industrial production- Industrial production in Japan is estimated to have come in at 1.4 per cent in November month on month

    19th January

    China Q4 GDP- Growth has likely slowed to 6.8 per cent in the fourth quarter as against 6.9 per cent growth seen in Q3. Quarter on quarter, growth is believed to have fallen to 1.7 per cent, compared to 1.8 per cent growth seen previously.

    China Retail Sales- Year on year, retail sales is expected to rise 11.3 per cent in December as against 11.2 per cent rise recorded previously.

    China Industrial Production- Year on year, industrial production will likely come in at 6 per cent in December, dropping from 6.2 per cent growth seen earlier.

    UK Retail Price Index-
    Retail price index is estimated to have stagnated in December both for month on month and year on year comparisons.

    UK Producer Price Index- Non-seasonally adjusted PPI Output is estimated to have stagnated in December. It will likely come in at -0.2 per cent (month on month). While year on year, it is expected to come in at -1.2 per cent as compared to the previous – 1.5. Non-seasonally adjusted PPI Input is likely to be -1.4 per cent month on month and year on year it is estimated to come in at -11.4 per cent compared to the -13.1 per cent seen earlier.

    UK CPI- CPI is expected to have risen to 0.1 per cent month on month in December after having stagnated in November. Year on year, CPI is believed to have moved to 1.2 per cent, up from the 1.1 per cent seen earlier.

    Euro zone CPI-
    CPI in the euro zone stagnated in December. Month on month it is estimated to have stayed unchanged at -0.1 per cent and year on year it likely stayed unchanged at 0.2 per cent. Core CPI year on year however is expected to have moved up slightly to 0.9 per cent in December.

    Euro zone ZEW Survey Economic Sentiment- Economic sentiment in the bloc is expected to have fallen to 27.9 as against 33.9 reading recorded earlier.

    New Zealand CPI- Consumer Price Index is expected to have contracted -0.2 per cent in Q4, dropping from 0.3 per cent growth seen in Q3

    20th January

    UK ILO Unemployment Rate (3M)- The ILO unemployment rate (3M) is expected to remain unchanged at 5.2 per cent in November. The Average Earing Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) is likely to fall 2.1 per cent in November, down from earlier 2.4 per cent. The Average Earing Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) is likely to fall 1.8 per cent down from 2 per cent.

    US Housing & Building Permits- Building permits is expected to have dropped to 1.200 million in December, down from 1.289 million seen earlier. Housing starts, on the other hand increased to 1.197 million, up from 1.173 million seen previously.

    US CPI- CPI is estimated to have stagnated month on month in December. Year on year it is expected to have risen 0.8 per cent, up from the earlier growth of 0.5 per cent.

    Canada BoC Interest Decision- Markets largely expect BoC to not move and keep rates unchanged at 0.5 per cent.

    21st January

    ECB Rate Decision- The ECB will hold a meeting to decide on whether or not it will raise rates. The central bank might choose to not move as policy makers want to give more time to the current easing policies to impact the economy. The ECB’s monetary policy statement release and the post meeting press conference is also scheduled for Thursday.

    Euro zone Consumer Confidence- Consumer confidence in the bloc is supposed to come in at -.5.8 in January as against the -5.7 drop seen earlier.

    22nd January


    Euro Zone Markit PMI- Markit manufacturing PMI is expected to come in at 53.0 in December, down from 53.2 recorded earlier. Markit services PMI is estimated to have moved up slightly to 54.3 in December. Markit Composite PMI is believed to have stayed unchanged at 54.3.

    UK Retail Sales- Retail sales are estimated to have fallen sharply to 0.2 per cent month on month December, down from 1.7 per cent growth seen previously. Year on year, it is expected to have slipped from 5 per cent to 4.4 per cent.
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